The Yellow Submarine have ambitions of their own, entering this match with a chance to secure Europa League play next season.When the two teams played at the Estadio de la Cerámica back in September, the home side took the lead twice, but goals from Gareth Bale rescued a draw for the visitors.Real Madrid (4-3-3): Thibaut Courtois; Dani Carvajal, Raphaël Varane, Sergio Ramos, Ferland Mendy; Casemiro, Toni Kroos, Luka Modrić; Eden Hazard, Karim Benzema, Vinícius JúniorFor the Zinedine Zidane’s side, expect a 4-3-3. Squad size: 27 ... National team players: 7. To ensure attacking initiative, as well as a quick recovery when the ball is lost, The Yellow Submarine look to overload near the ball when in possession.The first benefit of the attacking overloads is that the team nearly always has a numeric superiority. Unable to beat the press, Villarreal forced a difficult pass into a bad area. As we saw in the fixture against High pressing is part of Villarreal’s identity. On the other hand, Villarreal … However, they pressed high as a unit, not allowing Real Madrid to pass the ball around the backline, rather looking to push them back inside their own half with an organised press with Chukwueze moving up the field and being followed by supporting midfielders. One reoccurring trend was the far-sided outside-back remaining deeper and more central. I’ll touch on this in a moment, but wing build-ups with numeric overloads offer a great chance of success.In the image below, Real Madrid forced play backward twice, driving the Villarreal attack deep into their own half of the pitch. Zidane opted for Rodrygo on the right of attack, despite speculation that Vinícius would start the tie. This is why Benzema would pull off into wider areas in search of more space. Expect Cazorla to join G. Moreno up top, leaving Chukwueze and Ontiveros to join Iborra and Anguissa as a midfield four. With no immediate outlets, the Brazilian forced the ball forward, resulting in a turnover.The defensive stalwart was the victim of Granada’s pressure in the previous match, leading to the home side’s goal. The Frenchman plays Carvajal behind the lines, leaving Villarreal scrambling for solutions. Villarreal stands between Real and the crown. However, look at the massive amount of space the Villarreal rest defence concedes.In the last match against Real Sociedad, the Villarreal high press was also unbalanced in the wings, allowing Sociedad to switch play through a central outlet.Both teams will enter the game looking to employ the high press. With Cazorla rested, the team was lacking their usual attacking midfielder and had instead opted for more defensively reliable options in the middle of the park. When compared, Real Madrid managed just 21.4% of interceptions in the Villarreal half, but this was primarily due to the relaxation in the press after Real Madrid took the lead. However, by being in such a wide area at a narrow angle, many of his opportunities from open play were low xG chances which he could not convert. The holding midfielders tend to maintain a better connection with the forward and attacking midfielders, offering cover for their press, so Madrid will look for ways to play through the lines, into the emerging gaps. As Big Benz checked into the wing, Torres mistakenly followed him. Celta de Vigo has won 2 and draw 3 in the last 5 matches. Although I like Valverde’s ability to receive between the lines and run at the backline, the Croatian simply offers more help in beating the first two lines of pressure.For Villarreal, it means avoiding that retreat to goal before sending the long, central distributions. If Vinícius Júnior starts the match, look for Madrid to target him on the wings. When Madrid builds-up in their defensive third, they’re typically very reliable in possession, not expanding their attacking shape until possession is secured.
Gauging their approach to the match is a major point of discussion. Villarreal will find the task a difficult one, but they can greatly help their cause by avoiding being pinned centrally and distributing from deep and, as they progress higher up the pitch, moving Casemiro away from the middle of the pitch.For Real Madrid, unbalancing the Villarreal high press and counterpress will unlock space between the holding midfielders and backline. As the wingers swapped, the full-backs would vary their movement, with Mendy in particular linking up well and allowing Hazard to drift inside without compromising the team defensively.While the hero of the day was Benzema with two goals, his non-penalty xG was just 0.33 xG as the Frenchman struggled to find spaces in central areas or to escape a marker and get on the end of Real Madrid’s crosses, with only 11 recorded with almost half coming in the first half an hour before changing approach as Benzema was evidently unable to find the space required in these central areas with the two organised blocks in defence and midfield.
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